The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal, as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday.

IMD said that, quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%.  

  The  Long Period Average (LPA) of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

Currently, Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region.

However, the atmospheric Circulation features are similar to La Nina conditions.

"The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the Neutral ENSO condition are likely to continue during the monsoon season. At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean, and the latest Climate models forecast indicates that the Neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the southwest monsoon season," the statement said.

The snow-covered areas of the northern hemisphere and Eurasia during the last three months (January to March, 2025) were below normal.

The winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has in general, an inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall. 

The Monsoon usually sets in India on June 1 and retreats from the country in mid-September.