Is Mamata Banerjee facing political deadlock as SIR delay fuels President’s Rule talk in Bengal?

Widely known for his confrontational tenure with the M. K. Stalin government in Tamil Nadu, Ravi — a former bureaucrat and intelligence officer — replaces C. V. Ananda Bose at a time when the term “Presidential Rule” has begun circulating in West Bengal’s political discourse, albeit without formal confirmation.

Mamata Banerjee greeting R.N. Ravi at the Governor's oath-taking ceremony. Lok Sabha West Bengal/X

In contrast to other poll-bound states, West Bengal’s assembly elections may be announced by the Election Commission of India within the next few days, but possibly with certain conditions attached.

Analysts say the election process is in a state of uncertainty as nearly 50 lakh voters’ names remain under adjudication as of March 10, with little assurance that the verification process will conclude before the nomination filing deadline.

The Supreme Court of India, which had earlier appointed judicial officers from West Bengal and neighbouring states to verify around 60 lakh SIR-related cases, took a strong stance during the last hearing on March 10, criticising petitions challenging the verification process.

“As if you don’t have trust. How did you dare such applications are filed? No one should dare question the judicial officers. As a Chief Justice of India, I will not tolerate this,” the bench led by Chief Justice of India Surya Kant reportedly said, according to Bar and Bench.

Mamata Banerjee's artistic protest against SIR at her dharna site. Photo: Mamata Banerjee/Facebook

However, the court modified its earlier order by directing the formation of an appellate bench comprising former High Court Chief Justices and former High Court judges to hear appeals against deletions from the adjudicated electoral list.

The appellate mechanism may have prompted Banerjee to call off her dharna over the SIR exercise on the fifth day, but it has done little to calm concerns within the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

Interestingly, almost all major political parties — including the primary opposition Bharatiya Janata Party — have opposed holding elections before the SIR process is completed, which has faced multiple legal and administrative hurdles since the drive began late last year.

“No SIR, no vote,” several BJP leaders said in unison.

Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Shatarup Ghosh says "it is not only a question of voting rights but also of contesting elections."

"A potential candidate may be deprived of the opportunity to contest if his or her name is not included in the final list before the nomination deadline,” said the prominent youth leader of the Left. 

A glimpse of SIR drive in Kolkata. Photo: Avishek Mitra/IBNS

Given the current pace of adjudication and the subsequent appeal process, analysts believe conducting elections on time may prove extremely difficult.

Veteran journalist Suman Chattopadhyay, in his podcast, argued that Banerjee’s move to approach the Supreme Court may have backfired.

“About 25–30 lakh voters’ fate may still remain unresolved even after elections are announced. The real question is whether the TMC will fully accept the judicial officers’ verification process,” he observed.

Meanwhile, Ravi’s sudden appointment ahead of high-stakes elections — and Banerjee’s sharp criticism of the move — has sparked speculation over whether Lok Bhavan may assume a more prominent role in the unfolding political drama.

R.N. Ravi at his oath-taking ceremony. Photo: Lok Bhavan West Bengal/X

Banerjee had earlier alleged that Union Home Minister Amit Shah informed her about Ravi’s appointment without consulting the state government, calling the move a violation of established constitutional conventions.

“Such actions undermine the spirit of the Constitution of India and strike at the very foundation of our federal structure,” Banerjee wrote on X, before striking a surprisingly conciliatory tone towards the outgoing Governor, whom she had criticised for years.

As the political situation grows increasingly complex, analysts are exploring multiple scenarios. However, the TMC government is unlikely to favour any postponement of elections beyond the first week of May, since failure to constitute a new cabinet by May 7 could open the door for President’s Rule under constitutional provisions.

The BJP, despite being the principal challenger to the TMC, may hesitate to openly support such a move given its long-standing criticism of the Emergency imposed by former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

“You tell me what benefit the BJP will get if President’s Rule is imposed. What advantage will we have?” asked veteran actor and BJP leader Mithun Chakraborty.

“The delay is because of you (TMC). You are going to the Supreme Court and doing everything, and now you are talking about 60 lakh votes,” he added.

Chakraborty also dismissed speculation that Ravi’s appointment automatically signals the imposition of President’s Rule.

Banerjee herself appeared to address the possibility during her recent dharna in central Kolkata.

“Do you intend to impose President’s Rule? I challenge you to do it. I will also see. It will at least give me a break before fighting you again,” the Chief Minister said in her trademark combative tone.

Yet political observers believe Banerjee’s rhetoric may not reflect the ruling party’s real preference. A prolonged period under central rule — with Lok Bhavan assuming a dominant administrative role — could disrupt the Trinamool Congress’ organisational structure, which heavily relies on Banerjee’s political authority and the state machinery.

Mamata Banerjee during her dharna in downtown Kolkata. Photo: Avishek Mitra/IBNS

Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty argued that President’s Rule could potentially benefit the BJP.

“Mamata Banerjee wins elections with the help of money power, muscle power and state machinery. All of that would disappear under President’s Rule,” Chakraborty said in an interview with Bongo TV.

“The officers who support her now may quickly align with the Governor. A section of local strongmen could also switch sides, and businessmen may shift their support to the BJP,” he added.

(Photos: Avishek Mitra/IBNS, Lok Bhavan West Bengal/X and Mamata Banerjee/Facebook)